Bibliographic Item (1.0)

Armour06

1. Phillip G Armour
2. Counting Boulders and Measuring Mountains
3. Commun ACM V49n1(Jan 2006)pp17-20
4. =ANALOGY ESTIMATION PLANNING Project Management WBS COCOMO SLIM-Estimate Everest
5. Argues that you don't get a good estimate of the size of a mountain by estimating the rocks that make it up and adding up the numbers.
6. WBS::="Work Breakdown Structure", count the rocks in the mountain.
7. Executives then ask for a better estimate/plan.
8. Scope-based implementation is more like using surveying tools and techniques to measure the mountain.
9. Use the scope of the project to estimate final system size.
10. Time depends on a power of system size.
11. Since scope is uncertain and the estimates of size based on a given scope add uncertainty, one generates effort estimates that have a range of values.
12. Quantify the uncertainties!
13. No discussion of the agile approach (start climbing the mountain first, and change your estimates as you climb, etc.)

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